After the Battle

Haaretz reports that Israel is pulling out of the city of Bint Jbail (ht: Pajamas Media):

Israel Defense Forces troops pulled out of the southern Lebanon town of Bint Jbail on Saturday afternoon ... Armored Corps soldiers were still operating around the town, and were in control of certain areas.

This seems to indicate that the IDF is withdrawing from the urban terrain of the city, but remaining perched on the hills to the east, west, and south. The Jerusalem Post reports that the bulk of the forces are redeploying to hit other villages and cities close to the border. Israel has talked about creating a shallow zone in Lebanon for security purposes, but the IDF hasn't had a substantial presence anywhere else in Lebanon. The call up of three more divisions could be to provide enough manpower to accomplish that objective.

The movements of the IDF at first glance would imply that Israel does not plan to use ground troops to deny Hezbollah missile launching sites south of the Litani river. It could also be that this was some sort of probing attack, trying to take measure of just what they were up against in terms of Hezbollah's capabilities and they are planning to go the Litani through a different route.

Any observer, however, must note that Israel has not achieved any of her objectives that she has gone to war for. The IDF has not prevented Hezbollah from launching rockets into northern Israel, nor have they recovered their captured soldiers. Israel's strategy still seems to be to engage the enemy at arms length and avoid any kind of attrition on the ground. Air power still seems to be the tool of choice in suppressing rocket fire, but it is limited in that it can only react most of the time after a launch has revealed its target. Hezbollah, never discounting the efficacy of propaganda, is crowing that, in inflicting eight casualties in a single battle, that they have hit the Achilles heel of the IDF, casualties. From MEMRI via Pajamas Media:

"In the ground war, we will have the upper hand. In the ground war, the criterion is our attrition of the enemy, rather than what territory does or does not remain in our hands, because we are not fighting with the method of a regular army. We will definitely regain any land occupied by the enemy, after inflicting great losses upon it."

Where then, are things going to go from here?

With Secretary Rice returning to the region, it would appear that a negotiated ceasefire and settlement could be in the works. It could also be that the IDF is merely planning for a much deeper penetration of Lebanese territory and has temporarily pulled back to prepare. More information should be forthcoming over the next few days.

Continued Fighting in the Bint Jubayl - Maround al-Ras Region

Haaretz gives an after action report on the fighting in Bint Jubayl from dawn to dusk today.

Looking over my post last night I notice that I had implicitly assumed that the IDF had complete control of the town, excepting a group of 100 fighters that were supposedly surrounded in one part of the city. As Bill Roggio notes at the Counter Terrorism blog:

The Israelis have confirmed that Hezbollah is fighting like a professional military. Their units are fighting at the company level at the least (Unit size of approximately 100 men), and perhaps in larger formations. Intelligence also confirms there is specialization within the Hezbollah units, including trained infantry, mortar teams, missile squads, and logistical personal. Iran has trained and organized Hezbollah's army into something far more deadly than a militia force. Hezbollah's core 'active' army is estimated at 3,000 - 5,000, with as many as 50,000 part time militia and support personnel that can be called upon to fight (20,000 is the average estimate).

An IDF infantry platoon was sent in from the hill and ridge north east of Bint Jebayl, and ran into an organized ambush that had on call supporting elements. From the Haaretz article:

The initial battle raged for about an hour. During the next three hours, other platoons entered the area in an attempt to extricate the force that was pinned down. Hezbollah forces fired antitank missiles and threw grenades at the force it had caught in its ambush, and it also used mortars to attack the supporting IDF units.

What was once assessed as a surrounded, soon to be defeated enemy, turns around and shows that it has quite a bit of fight in it yet. From the Jerusalem Post:

Dozens of Hizbullah gunmen armed with antitank missiles and machine guns and geared up in night-vision goggles and bulletproof vests set a trap for a force of Golani infantrymen led by Lt.-Col. Yaniv Asor, commander of Battalion 51.

Eight Israelis were killed, while the IDF claimed that "at least 40" Hezbollah were killed as well.


Reading the accounts of the battle almost seem to be a mixture of "Blackhawk Down" and Stalingrad. A unit gets ambushed and draws in larger and larger forces in the attempts to rescue it. Meanwhile, Bint Jubayl is viewed by one side as a trophy to be captured, and by the other as terrain that must not be yielded. It will be interesting to see if Hezbollah tries to move in more troops and try to hold the Israeli's in position, or if they will instead attempt to fight a battle of posts up the roads leading north to the Litani river. I still think the latter strategy is more likely, but then again I wouldn't have guessed that nine casualties in a single day would take the luster off the IDF in the media.

Just some thoughts.

The Next Line

Over the past 24 hours more information has been flowing from the Bint Jubayl front. According to the Jerusalem Post article, elements of the Golan Brigade, including two battalions of armor screened by airborne and infantry have seized control of Bint Jubayl. The only major concentration of enemy troops mentioned being an estimated 100 Hezbollah fighters surrounded in the town casbah. The Israelis used their advantage in firepower to push Hezbollah units out of their positions, as the supporting artillery battalion fired over 3000 shells during the battle.

Bill Roggio has posted on the Counterterrorism Blog his assessment of how the Israeli's are going to proceed after the seizure of Bint Jubayl. He senses that the Israelis may soon run out of time, and thus are going to try to carve out a small buffer zone that will be turned over to a NATO led force that will replace the UN peacekeepers in the region.

If Israel is interested in getting to the Litani river as quickly as possible, they should start moving north in force over the next 24 to 48 hours. The IDF seems to be taking the local high ground first, which allows them to dominate the villages that are often placed in the valleys. The first signs may occur around the village of Taire as the hill to the north has a commanding view over the nearby towns. The hill to the south of Braachit may also be seized in conjunction with this.

It is going to be interesting to see if the IDF attempts to raise the tempo of their operations over the next few days. If things continue in this sector at the same pace, during the next 48 to 72 hours the IDF should occupy this next line of towns.

A (theoretical) situation map

This is how I view the situation right now. Hard to say what is really going on though. The casualty reports seem to be too low for any kind of hard fighting. It is also difficult to figure out the strengths on either side. For all I know the Israelis could consist of a handfull of companies facing off against several dispersed teams of Hizbollah fighters. There has been no news of any other towns involved in the fighting either. For now it seems both Hizbollah and the Israeli's are content to fight each other at arms length.

Quick update:

According to the Jerusalem Post here, the IDF now controls Bint Jbail. Lots of interesting information about what they have found as well. I'll see if I can comment on things a little more thoroughly later.

A quick update

Unfortunately details are still very sparse, but the Jerusalem Post has a news update that says that:

IDF ground forces and Hizbullah guerrillas were engaged Monday morning in a heavy exchange of fire north of the village of Maroun al-Ras, a strongly-contested Hizbullah stronghold.

If you look at a map, north of Maroun al-Ras is the town of Bint Jubayl, which has been described as the nexus of Hezbollah's administration in the region. Strangely enough in the same article they write:

Despite sporadic gunbattles throughout the day in Maroun al-Ras - the scene of heavy fighting last week - the IDF on Sunday dispatched troops to take up positions on the outskirts of Bint Jubayl, a village east of Maroun al-Ras.

From the maps I've been looking at the city of Bint Jubayl is immediately to the north of Maroun al-Ras, not the east. It could be that the journalist happened to get Bint Jubayl confused with its neighbor, roughly 2 km to the east, Aitarun. It could also be that the source of the report was confused as to where they were, and actually on the ridge to the west of Bint Jubayl. Ultimately it is unknowable due to the paucity of information currently available. On a minor note I am uncertain of the proper name of this city. I've seen it spelt Bint Jbail as well as Bint Jbayl. In fact the article spells it two different ways.

I've noticed that the IDF seems to be taking its time here, it could be that they haven't had enough time to build up the forces they want in the immediate area. It could also be that they are scouting out wherever it is they wish to go next. Once they have control of Bint Jbail they will control a major crossroads that will allow them to go north, east, or west.

Quick Update: This would seem to fit right in with Red River's comments at the Belmont Club (second comment down):

This is intricate, set-piece fighting and Isreal is going to take it slow and careful using terrain, overmatch and firepower to grind Hezbollah down.

The Belmont Club: The Path of the IDF

The Belmont Club: The Path of the IDF

Heh, didn't expect this result.

What I was trying to do was use the 'create a link' function to show that my blog had commented on his blog. Anyway, my comments are here.

Seizing the High Ground

This started off as a post over at Wretchard's excellent blog, The Belmont Club.

If you have Google earth, take a look at these coordinates:

Yaroun: 33° 4'54.60"N 35°25'11.00"E
Maroun al-Ras: 33° 6'11.34"N 35°26'43.78"E
Hill 891: 33° 5'46.07"N 35°29'30.44"E

These three coordinates may demarcate the line of the Israeli advance into Lebanon over the last 24 hours (see links here and here (ht: Pajamas Media)). The reasons for them to do so, at least on a tactical/operational level are pretty clear. First, seize the high ground. I dug up a topographic map (via Google here) that gives the peak heights of the surrounding terrain in meters. Assuming that the map is accurate, a brief survey shows that the town of Maroun al-Ras sits on the highest terrain for kilometers around at a peak altitude of 943 meters. Hill 891 which is probably the Israeli right flank has the next highest altitude at 891 meters. Yaroun anchors the Israeli left flank, creating an arc of positions along the ridgeline. For at least several kilometers north and west of there the terrain is either valley, or with a peak altitude no greater then 825 meters. Second, according to this report (ht: Pajamas Media) the town of Bint Jabel is considered by the Israelis to be the “Hizbullah capital.” The town is sheltered in the valley north-west about 1 1/4 miles from Maroun al-Ras and now ripe for an Israeli incursion.

Quick note: I'm new to blogging, still trying to figure out this whole trackback thing. If I mess it up I apologize!

Quick note 2: mnc, in the comments section here points to a newspaper article about the Irish battallion that used to operate in this area, here (registration required).