Hezbollah's strategy

It is becoming evident that Hezbollah has been preparing for a long time for this kind of conflict. It may be that they were just being opportunistic when they seized the Israeli soldiers as hostages, but I have a feeling that Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, and Iran are orchestrating a planned operation. At any rate Hezbollah, and its allies have put a lot of forethought and planning into this. Michael Totten wrote months ago that things were very tense along the border in his article "Everything Could Explode at Any Moment," and explode they have.

After reading this Jerusalem Post article this morning, I reflected that Hezbollah has adopted a basically defensive strategy of four parts:

First keep lobbing in artillery rockets whenever possible to keep the Israeli's engaged. Its not going to do much real damage, but it will show them as striking back and fighting the enemy.

Second, keep lines of communication open to the outside media. They can be powerful allies in shaping world opinion. The more pictures of dead and mutilated civilians you can show to the world, the easier its going to be for your natural allies to voice the opinion that either Israel is being "disproportionate" or engaged in the "annihilation" of an entire people. The Israelis of course realize this which has led to some drama around the Al-Manar television tower:

Earlier in the day, the IAF bombed the building in Beirut from which the Hezbollah-run television station, Al-Manar, is broadcast.

The station went off the air for a short while after the airstrike but then resumed broadcasting about six minutes later. The station is Hizbullah's main communications link, and most of the information the world has received from the group about recent fighting has been issued by Al-Manar.

It was the fourth time in recent days that the IDF has targeted the building.

I've heard that most journalists get their information from official sources, the Al-Manar feed is probably an important source for those who are currently reporting and shaping the ongoing story in Lebanon. More importantly it is also an important source of information for the local bloggers, and is probably a large factor in how they are beginning to perceive how the conflict is unfolding.

Third, Hezbollah has developed an official presence in various parts of the country. Not only do they control the border with Israel, they also have their own the fief in the Bakaa valley in the east. Official buildings and headquarters also exist in Beirut, along with hardened installations that the Israeli's have been striking with bunker-buster bombs:

A senior IAF officer revealed to the Post on Sunday afternoon that the IDF was using bunker-buster bombs to strike at senior Hizbullah officials in hiding throughout Beirut and Lebanon. According to the officer, several of the bunker hideouts were hidden under civilian parking lots.

By integrating themselves as much as possible into the rest of Lebanese society they were trying to gain a bit of a deterrence factor against the Israelis. They probably hoped that maybe they would not strike at them in Beirut, and occupy themselves with the terrain at the border. Israel has chosen not to be deterred against Hezbollah, and thus Hezbollah has had lots of opportunities to amplify any civilian casualties that will occur.

Fourth, buried in the article was the note that:

Al-Arabiya television reported that the Syrian military was mobilizing its own reserve divisions.

Now at the time its not clear if this is just saber rattling or if the operational plan calls for an overall escalation against the Israelis by an assault on the Golan Heights (admittedly unlikely) or a return of the Syrian Army to Lebanon. It could be that this entire operation is just so that Syria and Hizbollah can drag all of Lebanon back kicking and screaming into the fold.