Transit Umbra

Can't Resist -- Keynes vs. Hayek Rap

2010-01-26T18:37:00.003-05:00

Merry Christmas!

2009-12-24T14:41:00.001-05:00

Peace on earth and goodwill to men.

Christ the savior is born!

Obama's quote on Iran

2009-06-17T18:06:00.002-04:00

Obama says that he, "understands the Iranian people have deep concerns about the election."

Oh dear, he really doesn't get this, does he? Imagine Churchill said something like this in the early days of the second World War. That he understood that the Polish people had deep concerns about the German army invading from the west, and the Russian army from the east? Yeah, I've heard the line that he is trying to look like he's not interfering in internal Iranian politics, or that the next leader of Iran won't be any different, but it doesn't excuse the incredibly weak language. Its like you are an upset customer, and Obama, the service rep repeats, yeah I understand. You know nothing is going to be done, and worse you know he knows that you know, or something like that. Aren't we proud of our political traditions and the right to vote? Couldn't he have said something affirmative about our belief in liberty? You can be cagey, and still give support.

I've discovered Twitter

2009-06-08T17:48:00.002-04:00

I'd probably blog more, but I keep on find other things to see/do/read.

Now I can spend endless hours going through all the tweets of the people I now follow.

I think I need to clone myself.

Damn you technology! (but I still like you...)

TOTUS interview

2009-06-08T17:42:00.004-04:00

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the Teleprompter of the United States:

(ht: Jim Geraghty)

Pelosiku I

2009-05-17T18:08:00.002-04:00

The Cuckoo sings in spring

I was not informed!

Of those other eggs.

(edit: Hrm, I think thats better)

Green Box

2009-05-05T18:26:00.002-04:00

I was browsing Amazon and came across this link to this:

Heh!

Cool!

2009-04-28T19:38:00.001-04:00

Model Rocket hobbyist Steve Eves' model Saturn V (ht: Instapundit)

When rabbits go bad...

2009-03-25T23:16:00.001-04:00

ht: Hotair

Until work calms down a bit....

2009-03-21T11:26:00.000-04:00

Taxpayer Prize Patrol

2009-02-27T18:15:00.002-05:00

Coming soon to a city near you!

ht: Big Hollywood

Things have been busy

2009-02-24T21:07:00.003-05:00

Work is..... well, work.

So kick back and enjoy the ride: (ht: Instapundit)

Edit: No sooner do I finish this post and wander by the Anchoress, do I now have to post yet another youtube clip.

Some numbers to remember

2009-01-27T19:20:00.003-05:00

$11,315,000,000

The total amount of debt allowed the United States Government

$10,605,905.00

The principle amount of the debt as of January 23, 2009

$454,015,000

The cost to service that debt

From: Treasurydirect.gov

Vae Victis

2009-01-26T19:49:00.004-05:00

Woe at 1:17 in this clip

Perhaps a phrase from history might make a point?

Lebensunwertes Leben

Or this picture?

"This person suffering from hereditary defects costs the community 60,000 Reichsmark during his lifetime. Fellow German, that is your money, too."
(ht: Wikipedia)

TARP!

2009-01-23T18:25:00.002-05:00

(ht: Gateway Pundit)

Hmmm, could somebody do a parody of Money for Nothing? I want my "T" "A" "R" "P"

Coming to a dealership near you!

2009-01-22T18:22:00.002-05:00

(ht: The Corner)

Read the Stimulus!

2009-01-21T19:22:00.003-05:00

I stumbled across this link I think over at Redstate, which seems to be down at the moment. Start reading and then try to figure out what Congress is going to spend our future tax dollars on....

Imperator Caesar Divi Filius

2009-01-20T18:46:00.003-05:00

I've been reading a ton of blogs today trying to get a handle on the reactions to the Inaugural.

One picture posted by the Anchoress caught my attention, and I posted a comment there. I've crossposted it here as well:

My first reaction to this was, "Come on! Isn't this a little over the top?" Yet, a few moments later my initial exasperation drifted into unease. In some dark ancient pool of my mind something whispered, "Unlucky."

I wish Obama well, I'm sure he is already feeling the heavy weight of the responsibility entrusted to him. Messianic sweatshirts can only add to the burden. Tracey at Beyond the Pale says it well (ht: The Anchoress (again!))

Some People Have Lots of Time.... and Talent

2008-12-26T12:57:00.001-05:00

(ht: Ace of Spades)

Merry Christmas!

2008-12-24T17:24:00.002-05:00

And to all a good night...

Et factum est, ut discesserunt ab eis angeli in cælum: pastores loquebantur ad invicem: Transeamus usque Bethlehem, et videamus hoc verbum, quod factum est, quod Dominus ostendit nobis.

So many targets!

2008-12-09T20:04:00.002-05:00

There are so many targets, I don't know where to begin....

First the Governor of Illinois (D) has got himself arrested for corruption...

Unions shake down BoA by having said Governor threaten to suspend all business with them...

Unfortunately very short on time, see Redstate, Ace's.... heck anybody and everybody are all over both of these stories..

Good news everybody!

2008-12-09T19:57:00.000-05:00

ht: Belmont Club

Been real busy

2008-12-06T12:51:00.000-05:00

To all my 11 readers, been real busy this past week. Hope to comment sometime soon.

Hello Sun!

2008-11-25T18:23:00.004-05:00

I was perusing the blogs at National Review Online, and came across this in their Phi Beta Cons blog:

According to the Globe and Mail, Queen's University has hired and is intensively training student "facilitators" to monitor private conversations among students for homophobic slurs, remarks bashing women, racially tinged insults, and other language that could be judged offensive.

I can just see it now....

Oh, and if you haven't see "The Lives of Others", you are missing a great movie.

I'm Shocked! Shocked!

2008-11-20T17:10:00.003-05:00

....that there is Uranium in Iran!

After all didn't that much ballyhooed National Intelligence Estimate said that we didn't have to worry. Didn't it? (ht: Drudge)

I think it was Captain's Quarters blog (Now with HotAir) that started this tradition, but I hereby award the NIE a Captain Louis Renault Award.

A Quick Diversion

2008-11-20T07:34:00.001-05:00

(ht: Happy Catholic)

Politics of the Office

2008-11-13T22:42:00.004-05:00

The Power Line blog has been doing yeoman work in covering the close race between Franken and Sen. Coleman in Minnesota.

In one particular article they wrote, What's Happening In Minnesota? part 7, they quote an article from the Minneapolis Star Tribune:

The referee in Minnesota's hotly contested Senate race must act in a nonpartisan fashion, yet Ritchie came to office through a nationwide partisan strategy. He was elected in 2006 as part of a national campaign to ensure that Democrats could wield influence in precisely the sort of hair's breadth race we now have here.

Call me an idealist, but when you start trying to control the referee in the match so you get the close call there is just something wrong about that. Of course nobody would dare ever ask the question: "How would you prefer your election officials to act? Do you want them to act as a neutral judge? Or perhaps you want them to be the tie breaker?"

Criminalization of Politics

2008-11-13T21:58:00.003-05:00

Our government will not long last if one administration's policy becomes material for the next's prosecutors. It will lead to tyranny for politics will become an issue of self-preservation. I can not emphasize what a poison this would be for our system of government.

That said I was browsing the RedState blog and saw this link.

Where to begin....

The author of this article is Charlie Savage, author of Takeover: The Return of the Imperial Presidency and the Subversion of American Democracy. Evidently he studied as a journalist and a lawyer which is probably why this article has a very legalistic tone to it. His objective is to lay out for the reader, presumably hostile to President Bush, the terrain would be if they attempted a legal assault against him after he leaves office. I, for one, have no doubt of the influence that the New York Times has on the political class of the left and this is a clear suggestion by the writer and sanctioned by the editors. That this would even be brought up is troubling because it shows that they have no vision beyond their immediate political advantage.

Mistress of Disaster

2008-11-11T22:24:00.003-05:00

I was reading somebody's site the other day (quick google search, it was Hot Air) and saw a link to a New York Times article profiling who might be the Attorney General in the Obama administration.

This of course reminded me of another blog post I read sometime back here.

Yes, truly the "Mistress of Disaster"

Update: I was looking at the NYT article and it now had this: "but associates now say she is not interested in being considered for the job."

Quick Post

2008-11-09T17:01:00.002-05:00

After following the election non-stop for awhile I took a little break from the news. I've also not had a lot of time, stuff keeps interfering every time I want to put up a post.

Anyway, a couple things on my radar:

Terrorism financing tracking and interdiction seems to be collapsing:
Belmont Club
Counterterrorism Blog

Russia is already starting to pressure the Obama administration:
Belmont Club

Looks like its over

2008-11-04T22:51:00.002-05:00

Well looks like its over.

The Democrats asked the American people to give them the reigns of government, and it has been granted.

We have our first black president, which is a good thing.

Many battles still yet ahead, but tonight, rest.

Election Day Silliness

2008-11-04T07:59:00.002-05:00

We all need a little bit of silliness on election day, here is my contribution:

The Empire Strikes Back Election

This is silly, but it does kinda fit. This election is just like the Empire Strikes Back. Yeah, we were all happy after Reagan blew up the Death Star, but we know they were coming back. They always come back. Those media droids have been scouring the universe for two years looking for our secret rebel base, and we know they found us. Heck, Obama even asked Admiral Ozell, uh Biden, to be his VP. Its only going to be a matter of time before he decides that a "surprise" comment would be "wiser" and Obama will go all Vader on him. Things are probably going to go bad: Iraq could end up in pieces like C3PO, and Rush Limbaugh might have a date with the Fairness Doctrine Carbonite chamber. Yet, there is always next movie, and the hope we are going to have our day again. Just without the Ewoks, please.

And so it begins....

2008-11-03T20:34:00.002-05:00

Tomorrow is going to be a big day. I hope McCain can pull it out, if not...

Well, it would be a real bad system of government that can't take a couple years of the other side in power...

Well....

Ugh.

But.

We could pull it off. Vote.

Nota Bene: Nuclear Power

2008-11-02T12:09:00.003-05:00

As I said in the immediately proceeding post, nuclear power faces a production choke point with the ultra large forgings required for a single piece reactor pressure vessel. The only company with a facility capable of creating these is Japan Steel Works located on the island of Hokkaido. According to this Bloomberg article, companies are putting down a 100 million dollar down payments for a production slot (one of four per year).

You would think that one of these old steel towns in the US might have a facility that could be converted. After all, it seems that supply is constrained enough that the price will remain high.

If I had a hundred million dollars.....

Some interesting links:
Technical article on Steel Forging techniques
Japan Steel Works fabrication process

Obama Against Coal

2008-11-02T11:34:00.003-05:00

Now I'm a nuclear guy myself, mostly because I think that coal would be better used as a liquid fuel. However, with the regulatory and production hurdles of nuclear reactors, as our demand for electricity increases we basically have the option of more gas or coal fired plants.

Now, Joe Biden said a couple months ago that an Obama administration would not support the construction of more coal plants in this country (ht: marks @ RedState).

I believe that this did not go down well with certain states that have a lot of coal production, thus, during the VP debate, Biden had to *ahem* clarify the position.

Now Gateway Pundit has come across a speech where Obama promises (to a San Francisco audience, again!) to "bankrupt coal".

See the entire post:
Gateway Pundit: <em>EXPLOSIVE NEW AUDIO--</em> Obama Promises San Francisco Audience He Will Bankrupt Coal Industry!!

YAPA (Yet Another Political Ad)

2008-10-29T17:51:00.001-04:00

I chuckled a little bit at this one (ht: Gatewaypundit)

Gateway Pundit: Dictators Mock Obama's Ignorance (Video)

Marginal Tax Rates

2008-10-26T22:19:00.001-04:00

An interesting calculation by Greg Mankiw at his blog (ht: Instapundit)

Debate & the Wilderness

2008-10-15T20:11:00.002-04:00

I'll start off with a cliche:

There has been much ink and bytes spilled writing about what McCain has to do tonight.

I don't intend to spill much more.

I couldn't tell you if there is an argument available to McCain that would persuade enough undecideds to matter. Even if I did I would most likely be wrong. All he can do is fight for his principles.

That said, it is a distinct possibility that the principles we believe in will be pushed into the wilderness for a period of time with the next election. However, they must not go quietly. Quiet would not equate with dignity in this matter, but a lack of conviction.

Personally, if I found myself in the political wilderness I would dig a foxhole right inside the trees.

ReasonTV: Healthcare

2008-10-11T11:37:00.004-04:00

Here is an interesting video from ReasonTV about just who the uninsured are

[I couldn't figure out how to get the video to appear nicely on my blog (and I didn't want to learn CSS today) so just follow the link] -- Ed.

Question

2008-10-10T23:52:00.001-04:00

When the Washington Post publishes an article titled "The End of America Capitalism", I wonder what exactly they are advocating to replace it with?

McCain Web ad

2008-10-09T22:36:00.003-04:00

Here is McCain's latest ad:

Reporters on a Plane

2008-10-09T21:47:00.002-04:00

Ht: Drudge

CBS reporter Dean Reynolds writes:

Obama's campaign schedule is fuller, more hectic and seemingly improvisational. The Obama aides who deal with the national reporters on the campaign plane are often overwhelmed, overworked and un-informed about where, when, why or how the candidate is moving about.

In contrast, McCain's campaign:

The McCain folks are more helpful and generally friendly. The schedules are printed on actual books you can hold in your hand, read, and then plan accordingly. The press aides are more knowledgeable and useful to us in the news media. The events are designed with a better eye, and for the simple needs of the press corps.

He ends:

Maybe none of this means much. Maybe a front-running campaign like Obama's that is focused solely on victory doesn't have the time to do the mundane things like print up schedules or attend to the needs of reporters.

But in politics, everything that goes around comes around.

What to make of this? I doubt many people will decide their vote based on how effectively a candidate liaisons with with the press, nor would many decide based on this article. It does, however, shed light on the organization that surrounds each candidate. At first glance it would seem to be a tale of organization and structure. Obama does not make it easy for this guy to do his job, while McCain does. Yet that analysis seems shallow to me. I think that it shows how each candidate values the press. John McCain can't seem to get a fair shake from the press. A Reuters piece here, says:

Down in the polls, Republican presidential nominee John McCain pressed his effort to sow doubts about Barack Obama's character on Thursday with a fresh attack on his Democratic rival's contacts with a former left-wing radical who is now a college professor.

With the first sentence the journalist has framed McCain's argument as weak. It downgrades Obama's association with Ayers to "contacts" and labels him a "former left-wing radical". The article continues by changing the subject to the economy, and repeats an Obama attack on a McCain proposal. Is this the writing of people who are upset with the way they are being treated? Has anyone seen an article, other then the CBS blog post, claiming that Obama's campaign is chaotic? It is clear that Obama can treat the press anyway he likes because they will not do anything about it, despite grumbles in a blog. If there is going to be a karmic backlash against Obama for this, I'm sure the press will reserve it for long after the election.

Or for the tell all campaign book that hardly anybody will read.

Summation

2008-10-07T22:48:00.002-04:00

Might as well just watched the last one. No one helped themselves, but nobody hurt themselves either. Obama was incoherent at times on foreign policy and said all the Banks located themselves in his VP's state... McCain was his usual self, he really needed to hit Obama hard and make him play some defence, but didn't really...

All in all a waste of time imho, nothing new, nothing challenged the candidates.

Note to Obama

2008-10-07T22:10:00.002-04:00

Musharref isn't in charge of Pakistan anymore...

Once again he almost sounds like he is going in to Pakistan

Really this debate is just like the last one.

Obama on Iraq

2008-10-07T22:03:00.001-04:00

Spending 10 Billion dollars a month... yadda yadda

I've always wanted to reply:

Why? Victory.

Environmental question

2008-10-07T21:44:00.002-04:00

McCain: Nuclear (yes!)

Obama: Green jobs

Obama & McCain on taxes & entitlements

2008-10-07T21:40:00.002-04:00

McCain is just gonna give tax cuts to the rich.

McCain: fixing the problem is easy if we just all sit down

McCain on Small Business

2008-10-07T21:35:00.001-04:00

Yea!

Somebody finally makes the dang point that its small businesses as subchapter S corps that get nailed by income tax increases....

Sacrifices

2008-10-07T21:28:00.002-04:00

McCain: Cut spending
Eliminate earmarks (get rid of the projector)
Spending Freeze

Ugh, McCain missed a point to elaborate. Obama will call a freeze a cut.

Obama: Brings up 9/11...
Says we need a call to service.
Obama concedes oil drilling, clean coal, nuclear
Wants to incentivize energy conservation
National Service

Eh... still feels flat

What three to prioritize

2008-10-07T21:25:00.002-04:00

McCain: We can handle all at once

Obama: Energy

We are going to the Energy moon? Eh....

Healthcare

Businesses less competative (ie socialized medicine)

Line by line? Heh, almost as if he is asking for a line item veto...

Both parties are at fault

2008-10-07T21:19:00.002-04:00

Obama: Tries to tie McCain to deficits and budgets.

The energy seems to be so flat in the room for some reason.

I think who can kinda shake this thing up is going to get the accolades.

McCain: Look at our records, consult the watchdogs.

He is also getting into the crowd, he is positioning himself as one of the crowd.
This could be interesting to see how people viewing view that.

Brokaw interjects

2008-10-07T21:16:00.002-04:00

Are things going to get worse?

Obama: No.... must reregulate markets and coordinate with other countries. Must aid families to help with bills etc, and change culture in Washington.

McCain: Depends on what we do (a good distinction imho to start)

-- Best workers in the world

Hrm still skirmishing at this point.

Freddie & Fannie @ Debate

2008-10-07T21:13:00.002-04:00

Ah McCain finally brings out the 2nd highest recipeient of money from Freddie & Fannie... but he doesn't really link it into corruption.

Perhaps he is laying a foundation

Some who stood up against it, and some who didn't...

Obama responds:

I think he is trying to talk about the short term corporate paper market?

Tries to link McCain into deregulating things... and thus the problems

Once again this seems to be just a replay of the last one.

Live Blog

2008-10-07T21:04:00.005-04:00

Might as well try this...

Obama is up first, and tries immediately starts with the theme that deregulation is bad and he is going to:
- Strong oversight of the bailout
- CEO Pay
- Tax cuts... Public works

Thinking about the middle class...

McCain up:
Responds with Energy Policy

Hrm, brings up debt & home value.

Wants to buy up all the bad debt & renegotiate contract

Not you Tom... heh. I think Brokaw reacted well to that.

Obama: Starts the good old wages are flat etc. I have heard that since the day I was old enough to understand it....

McCain: Greed & Corruption on Wallstreet

My thoughts: This feels a lot like the last debate between the two...

Oooh here comes Freddie & Fannie!

Another AMV

2008-10-07T21:00:00.002-04:00

Debate is just about to start, but here is an AMV that seems to have caught the vibe of the past few days....

Cleaned up my side links

2008-10-07T20:53:00.001-04:00

Cleaned up my sidelinks to reflect newer links....

A suggestion from the Anchoress

2008-10-07T20:32:00.002-04:00

Here:

How McCain can win election tonight - UPDATED

Not my idea, but offered up in an email, by reader Gary S:

Promise the American people that if he is elected, he will appoint Rudy Giulliani as Attorney General and his first order of business will be to investigate, indict and prosecute all those involved in any wrong doing in the sub-prime mortgage debacle, from Wall Street, to K Street to Main Street.

Not a bad idea, at all. I’ve got more thoughts on McCain’s Do-or-Die below.

This idea went over amazingly well with me when I read it for the first time, it certainly would be interesting.

As seen on Ace of Spades HQ

2008-10-07T18:20:00.001-04:00

Heh...

So much for posting with any semblance of consistency

2008-09-20T11:11:00.003-04:00

Heh,

Well if anybody was wondering about tomatoes... I've been eating a lot of them. They really didn't start ripening until mid-august. Still have some large one of the vines that I need to pick. The cherry tomatoes are still producing, but my regular variety seem to have stopped. I may do one more fertilization as I think the pots are probably almost entirely stripped of nutrients now.

Waiting for Shahab

2008-04-12T12:21:00.002-04:00

Remember that NIE that said that Iran wasn't pursuing nuclear weapons?

I was reading The Corner at National Review this morning, and saw a post by Jonah Goldberg linking to an article in the London Times here.

Why would Iran be developing a ballistic missile capability to hit Europe if it wasn't to mount a nuclear warhead? I would guess that this generation of missile probably has a CEP around 1000m or so, way to inaccurate for conventional warheads. I also can't say if mounting a chemical or biological warhead on one of these would make sense either.

Plus, the Iranians continue to enrich Uranium, and are expanding their capability.

The seeds are in

2008-04-09T18:31:00.001-04:00

Planted 'em and poured a little water over them.

Now I just have to wait.

Tomato Watch: Day Zero.. uhh negative one? two??

2008-04-08T19:16:00.002-04:00

So I've decided to plant some tomatoes, from seed, and apparently I'm late to the party already. I was talking to some green thumbs at work and they mentioned I should have started weeks ago.

Oops.

Anyway I shall forge onward and attempt to get something to eat before August. I've bought, quite foolishly, a 36 cell greenhouse kit that I found at home depot when I was looking for pots and such. Usually I research such things, but I wanted to try to start from seed this year so... I thought, why not?

The types are:

Tommy Toe Cherry Tomato
Bucks County Tomato
Yellow Pear Cherry Tomato

I've got four twelve inch pots at the ready to take maybe two plants each? People I've talked to said that should be ok. I might also get some extra pots and try to grow one at work since I have a window that gets lots of sun.....

A little AMV

2008-03-19T20:04:00.006-04:00

Kicked back last night, tried to ignore politics and went browsing youtube for AMVs....

Here is a good one that just helps me relax, I liked the soundtrack to it so much I went and bought it on iTunes.

Edit: The video is not at its link anymore. It was "Magic Pad" by "Nostromo" The song is from the album AM by Arise (in fact its the only song on the album).

Book & Game List

2008-03-18T21:13:00.002-04:00

Currently Reading:

Fiction:
The Bloody Crown of Conan

Non-Fiction
Head First C#

Games:
Bioshock
NWN2: MOTB

An interesting link

2008-03-02T11:57:00.005-05:00

(HT: Instapundit)

An interesting video from reason.tv

Link

Hrm... how to size this...

Edit: Removed the movie from being inline with the page, reduced it to a link.

A Hunger For Data

2008-02-25T21:58:00.003-05:00

I've posted before on socialized health care, but this post by the Captain over at his new ship HotAir.com has awakened a hunger to crunch some more numbers on this.

More to come if I can find some numbers....

Oh dear....

2008-02-25T21:44:00.003-05:00

A friend of mine emailed me this link here.

I have to admit that the music in the background has the appropriate melodrama.

But the thought of George Soros and McCain conspiring together....

Lol!

Pride, meet stumble...

2008-02-18T23:23:00.003-05:00

From The Corner:

"For the first time in my adult life, I am proud of my country, because it feels like hope is making a comeback." — Michelle Obama

I've had a feeling that the Democrats concluded a year or so ago that they would win the next election. I even thought that it might result in a bruising primary season. Not that I thought there would be disagreements over ideology, but instead a fight for a spot on the ticket that would be guaranteed to win.

Statements like this tend to reinforce my initial thoughts.

Update:
Re-reading this post in the morning reminds me why nobody reads this blog (other then I post once in a blue moon)

Anyway, after looking at the scribblings of the night before I felt I should clarify myself to a degree. After all the quote seems tangential at best with the thought afterwards. I will attempt to explain with a chain of rather loosely linked and probably incoherent reflections.

In that statement I hear a fierce exultation. Something, I think, of a Roman general in his triumph. Yet it is missing the element of mortality, Memento Mori, remember that you are mortal. She has forgotten that she stands upon an edifice that has been built by previous generations sweat, toil, and blood. The hope that she points to is divorced from what has come before it. It can mean everything and yet nothing at all.

These words were only spoken, I think, because she has persuaded herself that they will win. They will march through the primaries, and then through the campaign and take what is rightfully theirs. In a sense this is the opposite side of the coin to BDS (Bush Derangement Syndrome). Where on one side if the opponent has power darkness reigns triumphant, the other is all light merely because they espouse the true doctrine.

Ah well, just some thoughts.

I never seem to have the time.....

2008-02-17T19:49:00.002-05:00

Hard to find time to post...

I ran across this story a couple days ago on another blog, but I can't remember which (sorry!). Anyway, it would seem that BAE, the British defense industry, was giving the government of Saudi Arabia bribes or kick-backs. When an investigation was launched the Saudi's threatened to cut off intelligence information. As the article puts it, "Saudi Arabia's rulers threatened to make it easier for terrorists to attack London unless corruption investigations into their arms deals were halted."

The government folded.

Evidently the intelligence trumped any possible repercussions to not investigating BAE.

It also calls to mind the Churchill quip to a society lady:

"Madam, We've already established what you are, now we're just haggling over the price."

Institutions

2007-10-13T23:37:00.000-04:00

This is an observation in broad brush strokes:

It seems that many institutions in this country have been corrupted by a kind of Leninism. That is not to say that they are marxist or even communist, but a reflection of the political methods employed by the Soviet Union. The example I would point to is Socialist Realism (wikipedia). Even art, arguably one of the highest achievements of man, was subordinated to ideology in the Soviet state.

To be fair, the use of art to further politics is not a new idea. One just has to look at the Pyramids , or read Plato's Republic. However, the soviet example echoes to me because of the dearth of art it left behind. What great artist of the twentieth century existed in the Soviet Union? If you run a google search no name pops up, though you do see an entry for propaganda posters. A few entries later you see a traveling exhibition, which prominently features a Faberge egg, definitely not a Soviet production. So to do our modern institutions seem barren. Take your pick of any political issue and you can find a depressing solidarity between press, academia, the arts, and the left in this country. Everyone is pulling together to further their ideology.

I would bid any reader to reflect, is this good or bad? You could argue that solidarity is merely a side effect of the wisdom contained within these institutions. Yet, to me, Socrates had a great point about those who proclaim their wisdom, as they have often mistaken opinion for truth and thus lead others into error.

Follow up thoughts

2007-10-13T23:18:00.000-04:00

Thinking back on my back-of-the-envelope calculation:

An obvious argument against what I posted below would be that the increase in taxation would be offset by business and individuals no longer having to pay an insurance company for health care. That is true, but overnight you would have essentially eliminated every health insurance corporation, and thrown all those people out of work. This is an even worse deal for those who went the HSA route, as now all the money they had been saving (and would be theirs at retirement iirc) would now be appropriated by a federal agency going forward. Now as far as I know, no major candidate of either party is currently advocating this. Instead we have a proposal to force everyone to carry health insurance. The downside of this is discussed at Pajamas Media here.

Back of the envelope calculations

2007-10-08T22:01:00.000-04:00

Note: Just some scattered thoughts on universal health insurance. This is not particularly organized, or even expressed well, but I wonder if anybody has thought five minutes about it.

At any rate I thought five minutes about it... you could probably argue that I should have thought ten.

$548,112,577,632.36

Thats my back of the envelope calculation of what universal, single payer, health insurance might have roughly cost in the year 2000. How did I calculate it? I took the cost of an HSA plan with a $3000 deductible and $183.01 per month premium over a year. I then multiplied that by the number of households according to the year 2000 census (105,480,101).

I'm assuming (a pretty big assumption) that the HSA plan is rationally priced to cover the risk of a large pool of the insured. I also assume that each household is pretty much an equal unit (in reality they are not and quite disparate).

Thus this number is probably not very accurate, but it gives you a handle on what it could cost. If anything the cost will be higher because most of your economic incentives to economize on health care (except for time) will be gone. In a single payer system there isn't insurance, instead its a cost distributing function. Insurance implies that you might not have to pay 100%. Not to mention you pay a penalty in administrative costs. You will never get a dollar in output for every dollar of input.

Also, while people will also call this 'free' health care, it isn't. Somebody has to pay for it, and you will in the form of taxes. If Congress was acting in a rational matter when it instituted socialized health care, it would raise a special tax that would only go to fund health care, and draw no revenues from the general fund. Congress would also not run any sort of deficit, except in maybe a twelve to twenty four month time frame to smooth out variations in tax receipts quarter to quarter (adding yet a higher administrative cost in the sense of having to pay interest and maintain bond issues).

Anyway, lets assume that each household will have a $434 additional tax liability per month. Thats roughly $5200 a year in additional taxes. Roughly 10% of income, for a household with an income of $50,000 a year, and it only gets more regressive with the less a household makes. At $25,000 its roughly %20 of your income for instance. In the interests of fairness, of course, the less wealthy will not be required to pay as much. This will shift the burden upward.

Of course in my scenario you still pay income tax to the federal government...

Assume that if you earn $50k, you have $40k of taxable income at a %20 rate..

Thats $8,000 in federal taxes owed + $5,200 for universal health care...

$13,200, (%26.4 of income) in total taxes to federal government (haven't even factored in state, local etc) Over $1000+ a month.

Federal spending would also rise from 2,656 Billion dollars (2006 outlays) to 3,116 Billion dollars (my estimate). With a GDP of 12,907 billion dollars you are looking at the federal government equal to 1/4 of the economy.

Ouch.

This doesn't even get into the philosophical issues surrounding universal health care, issues such as rationing, central control, and modifying the compact between the people and their government.

A quick dark thought

2007-09-24T21:26:00.000-04:00

Ahmadinejad visited Columbia today, a reflection:

There is a cult of sentiment in this country that proclaims that we should extend to our enemies all the rights and privileges that we enjoy, in order to prove that we deserve them. It demands a radical equality of principles, and a poverty of discernment. No longer do our higher institutions require a student to perceive a hierarchy of ideas; indeed to measure is to judge, and the guardians of higher education will have no judgment in their house.

It seems to me that we find ourselves in an intellectual climate similar to that Plato existed in ancient Athens. Who will win this time, philosophy or the sophist?

Vegetarian Cooking

2007-07-31T14:37:00.000-04:00

As my wife is a vegetarian, and I a unabashed omnivore, there is a bit of tension when it comes to dinner. No, she doesn't mind me eating meat, well not so much mind as tolerate. Anyway, the point is that I end up doing most of the cooking. However, I am too lazy to cook two different dinners every night and I usually just do something that we both can eat.

The problem is that there isn't anything out there that matches the texture and flavor of meat. Yeah I know about tofu and all that but, its just not the same to my palate. I'd love to do something like a chicken parmagian, but what to replace the chicken with?

Anyway, something to think about.

So much for good intentions

2007-07-31T14:33:00.000-04:00

Yeah I'm still alive (not that I think anybody thought otherwise)

Lots of changes in my personal life, etc.

Problem is that I tend to be more of a blog reader instead of a contributer. Probably should go for more small thoughts, more of a instapundit kind of style.

Hrm, since I have lots of time on my hands at the moment, might try to do this.

Intelligence Turf Wars

2007-01-31T19:36:00.000-05:00

Well this is what I was originally going to post on today, before I went to google news and saw the Chavez article.

Anyway....

[begin rant]

I was drinking some coffee and paging through a copy of the Wall Street Journal. On page A4 there is an article titled: Pentagon's Covert Activities Come Under Senate Scrutiny. The gist of the article is that Senator Jay Rockefeller (D - WV) is convening senate hearings on intelligence operations that came out of the Department of Defense post 9/11 that weren't run by the CIA.

Lawmakers plan to study whether the Pentagon obtained the proper authorization for covert operations and notified Congress as required under the law. The inquiry will also explore whether the Pentagon engaged in activities that legally are the responsibility of the Central Intelligence Agency.

This reminded me of a Powerline post from a couple years back: The CIA's War Against President Bush. This article would seem to indicate that the war continues, and now with the Democrats controlling both houses of Congress, making hay for the majority.

Important points from the article:

Democrats are claiming that Rumsfeld setup a "parallel intelligence network"
Republican lawmakers prevented "previous efforts" by the then minority from holding hearings
Democrats will focus on both foreign & domestic operations
Democrats are going to use laws passed during the Iran-Contra affair to attack these activities
Democrats think that the scope of these laws apply to intelligence operations in Iraq & Afghanistan

I'm afraid I'm going to be quite harsh in my analysis.

The CIA doesn't like the fact that the current administration took steps to ensure that they could perform covert operations that didn't involve the CIA. Thus the CIA has found friends within the ruling Democrats to hold hearings to protect their turf (ah bureaucracy!). I imagine that the quid pro quo was something like, if you protect our turf, we can help you with a few choice tidbits of information to embarrass the President. Nobody, naturally, thinks there is anything wrong with this. This is the great game, right? So now the CIA has invited the vampi.. politicians in to settle the matter. The problem is that the democrats also have an agenda beyond just the pure accumulation of power. They want to end our involvement in Iraq, and it would seem that any methods in the pursuit of this goal are to be utilized. Even if it means hamstringing legitimate operations in pursuit of our common enemy. After all, we want this to be all aboveboard and legal.

So, if we find Osama Bin Laden (or equivalent) somewhere around the world and want to launch an operation against him, the President must file a specific finding against the target beforehand "attesting that it supports specific foreign-policy goals and is important to national security" as well as notifying congressional intelligence committees when a covert action is to be carried out. While on the surface this seems a reasonable process for handling covert operations, I'm afraid that the Democrats are going to claim that all special operations in Iraq and Afghanistan fall under this process. At least that's what they will say from their soapbox, and then point at the administration and say that they are breaking the law (while doing nothing about it) to score more political points.

(sigh)

The only reasons I can fathom for what I perceive to be the Democrat's behavior is that:
a) The Democrats truly believe there is no threat from terrorism abroad
b) The Democrats have made a calculation that our defenses can hold whatever they and the enemy throw at them until they gain control of both the executive and the legislature. At that point they will make the battle against terrorism their war and forever silence their conservative critics that they are weak on defense.

[End Rant;]

Well there goes the neighborhood.....

2007-01-31T18:26:00.000-05:00

In a move used by dictators since the days of Julius Caesar, Hugo Chavez was:

granted free rein Wednesday to accelerate changes in broad areas of society by presidential decree — a move critics said propels Venezuela toward dictatorship. (source: the AP in the Houston Chronicle)

The article, written by Fabiola Sanchez, proceeds to describe the scene in a "downtown square." There she quotes National Assembly President Cilia Flores: "Fatherland, socialism or death! We will prevail!"

Where to begin?

I understand that there is some standard of objectivity that all journalists are supposed to aspire to. I also understand that after a legislature grants a president "free rein" in a "downtown square" to legislate by proclamation, that a killjoy article about the inevitable glorious society that is about to be realized may have fatal consequences. Somehow I wish that other words were written. Words that reflect the world's last one hundred years of experience dealing with men granted such power by such means.

Here are a few predictions that I fear are certainties, or even realities:

Expect that the political opposition will be quickly eliminated by various means. Some may have already seen the writing on the wall long before today and have already gone into exile. Some brave men and women, will attempt to stand up and speak out. They will go to prison or to the firing line. Chavez seems to idolize Fidel Castro, I'm sure he's already tapped the expertise available there in learning how to control a population. Lenin's bloody hand will reach out from the past century and once again trouble this one.

The enemies of the United States will be granted sanctuary and support in Venezuela. In fact enemies of any free nation in the hemisphere will gain it

Don't expect to hear much out of the press. Every dictator in the past 100 years has seized control of the media in his country. Many also seek to co-opt or coerce foreign media to control their tone, or feed wholesale propaganda back to their home countries. Can anyone name any dictator in the past 100 years who hasn't?

The left will hail the brave new experiment in Venezuela, but it will end in the same bloody shambles that all before it has.

Upset special: Chavez will go after the Scouting movement in Venezuela. Nazi Germany suppressed the scouts. Soviet Russia suppressed the scouts. Something I've noticed about totalitarian regimes is that they always do this in favor of some sort of political indoctrination youth movement.

NRSC Pledge

2007-01-28T20:35:00.000-05:00

I've been reading about this online, and while stopping by Hugh Hewitt's site I decided to put my name on the list as well.

It's ridiculous that Congress would send such a message to our enemies. They will conclude that time is on their side. All they have to do is wait, use a few car bombs here and there against an unsuspecting and defenseless civilian population, and the US Congress will strike our colors and run.

I can't imagine, during the height of the V-1 and V-2 attacks against London late in WWII, that Congress would prevent further divisions from reinforcing those already engaged. Especially if those divisions would then help us overrun the launching sites. Why deny the commanders on the ground the resources?

Out and about.

2007-01-04T17:34:00.000-05:00

Been out and about for work over the past few days. With a flaky wireless connection at the hotel, its hard to get online and read. Plus, I'm always watching TV in my room late at night, hoping beyond hope that there is something decent on. Anyway, I decided to find someplace to eat with free internet and coffee.

Time to relax.....

Open up Pajamas Media....

They say that Khamenei is dead.

No confirmation yet, so it may or may not be true. Some things to keep an eye on though. It could take a couple days for this to actually break, or it could be wild rumor. Will there be a scramble to secure his position? Wikipedia notes that his official title is Leader of the Revolution, and considered the absolute ruler of the nation. He ostensibly serves at the pleasure of the Assembly of Experts, and is chosen by them. It will be interesting to see what is reported about this assembly and if their votes will be made public, or if official propoganda will paint the selection as a unified decision. The choice of replacement will be an important thing to watch.

Reminds me of the days when people watched the Kremlin for signals in Soviet policy by watching those who occupied positions of leadership.

Just some thoughts.

One more quick comment

2006-12-28T21:44:00.000-05:00

I did transition this blog over to the new google thingy, but I'm still disappointed in the interface. In Firefox, if you highlight text to be used as a link, click on the link button, and type in your URL, it won't reset the button from its pressed state. Yeah, I know, a minor detail....

Its been awhile

2006-12-28T21:32:00.000-05:00

Haven't posted for awhile, as you may have noticed....

(the sound of crickets chirping)

I would like to say because there was such a dearth of response to my posts here, but in reality with the pace of events and a day job, it was hard to keep up with things.

That, and there are other people far more eloquent then I writing out there.

For an example see here.

However, as the new year approaches, I will try to do better and post something. Or, at least, reference someone else who has.

For your consideration

2006-08-17T19:40:00.000-04:00

There has been a buzz in the blogosphere and in print that Iran is going to be up to something on August 22nd. While browsing Pajamas Media I did notice that there were a few articles today that individually did not seem like much, but together attracted my attention:

Iran to launch major military maneuvers

Total Information Blackout: Iranian Police Destroying Satellite Dishes in Tehran

N. Korea Appears to Be Preparing for Nuclear Test

Interesting.

Mind Terrain

2006-07-30T16:46:00.000-04:00

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past, I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain." - Frank Herbert, Dune

The IDF airstrike on Qana, and subsequent collapse of a building that killed many civilians, illustrates the impact of ideas and perceptions in war. There is the physical terrain that a conflict takes place upon, and there is a terrain of the mind, complete with its own forbidden places. Not suprisingly many have reacted with disgust at the news of the civilian deaths, because in the west a thousand years of tradition have evolved to protect civilians against wanton acts of violence. Hezbollah, knowing this about the west, and seeking to seperate Israel from any potential ally, has been shaping the terrain since the beginning of the conflict. Despite being the initiator, they have built an impressive fortress in the minds of the western observer, founded on the perception that any Lebanese civilian casualty is a grave injustice. Any larger loss of life makes the hill it sits upon taller, and the shadow it casts trouble him more deeply. This is not a new problem, Plato in The Republic makes the analogy of the cave:

"Behold! human beings living in a underground den, which has a mouth open towards the light and reaching all along the den; here they have been from their childhood, and have their legs and necks chained so that they cannot move, and can only see before them, being prevented by the chains from turning round their heads. Above and behind them a fire is blazing at a distance, and between the fire and the prisoners there is a raised way; and you will see, if you look, a low wall built along the way, like the screen which marionette players have in front of them, over which they show the puppets." -- Plato's Republic, Book VII.

To see the truth, the observer must have the will to turn his eyes from the shadows on the wall, and see exactly what the puppeteer is doing behind his back. Will has always been a crucial factor in the ability to make war. The side that doubts itself lacks the resolve to pursue victory, resulting either in stalemate or defeat.

After the Battle

2006-07-29T13:38:00.000-04:00

Haaretz reports that Israel is pulling out of the city of Bint Jbail (ht: Pajamas Media):

Israel Defense Forces troops pulled out of the southern Lebanon town of Bint Jbail on Saturday afternoon ... Armored Corps soldiers were still operating around the town, and were in control of certain areas.

This seems to indicate that the IDF is withdrawing from the urban terrain of the city, but remaining perched on the hills to the east, west, and south. The Jerusalem Post reports that the bulk of the forces are redeploying to hit other villages and cities close to the border. Israel has talked about creating a shallow zone in Lebanon for security purposes, but the IDF hasn't had a substantial presence anywhere else in Lebanon. The call up of three more divisions could be to provide enough manpower to accomplish that objective.

The movements of the IDF at first glance would imply that Israel does not plan to use ground troops to deny Hezbollah missile launching sites south of the Litani river. It could also be that this was some sort of probing attack, trying to take measure of just what they were up against in terms of Hezbollah's capabilities and they are planning to go the Litani through a different route.

Any observer, however, must note that Israel has not achieved any of her objectives that she has gone to war for. The IDF has not prevented Hezbollah from launching rockets into northern Israel, nor have they recovered their captured soldiers. Israel's strategy still seems to be to engage the enemy at arms length and avoid any kind of attrition on the ground. Air power still seems to be the tool of choice in suppressing rocket fire, but it is limited in that it can only react most of the time after a launch has revealed its target. Hezbollah, never discounting the efficacy of propaganda, is crowing that, in inflicting eight casualties in a single battle, that they have hit the Achilles heel of the IDF, casualties. From MEMRI via Pajamas Media:

"In the ground war, we will have the upper hand. In the ground war, the criterion is our attrition of the enemy, rather than what territory does or does not remain in our hands, because we are not fighting with the method of a regular army. We will definitely regain any land occupied by the enemy, after inflicting great losses upon it."

Where then, are things going to go from here?

With Secretary Rice returning to the region, it would appear that a negotiated ceasefire and settlement could be in the works. It could also be that the IDF is merely planning for a much deeper penetration of Lebanese territory and has temporarily pulled back to prepare. More information should be forthcoming over the next few days.

Continued Fighting in the Bint Jubayl - Maround al-Ras Region

2006-07-26T22:49:00.000-04:00

Haaretz gives an after action report on the fighting in Bint Jubayl from dawn to dusk today.

Looking over my post last night I notice that I had implicitly assumed that the IDF had complete control of the town, excepting a group of 100 fighters that were supposedly surrounded in one part of the city. As Bill Roggio notes at the Counter Terrorism blog:

The Israelis have confirmed that Hezbollah is fighting like a professional military. Their units are fighting at the company level at the least (Unit size of approximately 100 men), and perhaps in larger formations. Intelligence also confirms there is specialization within the Hezbollah units, including trained infantry, mortar teams, missile squads, and logistical personal. Iran has trained and organized Hezbollah's army into something far more deadly than a militia force. Hezbollah's core 'active' army is estimated at 3,000 - 5,000, with as many as 50,000 part time militia and support personnel that can be called upon to fight (20,000 is the average estimate).

An IDF infantry platoon was sent in from the hill and ridge north east of Bint Jebayl, and ran into an organized ambush that had on call supporting elements. From the Haaretz article:

The initial battle raged for about an hour. During the next three hours, other platoons entered the area in an attempt to extricate the force that was pinned down. Hezbollah forces fired antitank missiles and threw grenades at the force it had caught in its ambush, and it also used mortars to attack the supporting IDF units.

What was once assessed as a surrounded, soon to be defeated enemy, turns around and shows that it has quite a bit of fight in it yet. From the Jerusalem Post:

Dozens of Hizbullah gunmen armed with antitank missiles and machine guns and geared up in night-vision goggles and bulletproof vests set a trap for a force of Golani infantrymen led by Lt.-Col. Yaniv Asor, commander of Battalion 51.

Eight Israelis were killed, while the IDF claimed that "at least 40" Hezbollah were killed as well.

Reading the accounts of the battle almost seem to be a mixture of "Blackhawk Down" and Stalingrad. A unit gets ambushed and draws in larger and larger forces in the attempts to rescue it. Meanwhile, Bint Jubayl is viewed by one side as a trophy to be captured, and by the other as terrain that must not be yielded. It will be interesting to see if Hezbollah tries to move in more troops and try to hold the Israeli's in position, or if they will instead attempt to fight a battle of posts up the roads leading north to the Litani river. I still think the latter strategy is more likely, but then again I wouldn't have guessed that nine casualties in a single day would take the luster off the IDF in the media.

Just some thoughts.

The Next Line

2006-07-25T23:03:00.000-04:00

Over the past 24 hours more information has been flowing from the Bint Jubayl front. According to the Jerusalem Post article, elements of the Golan Brigade, including two battalions of armor screened by airborne and infantry have seized control of Bint Jubayl. The only major concentration of enemy troops mentioned being an estimated 100 Hezbollah fighters surrounded in the town casbah. The Israelis used their advantage in firepower to push Hezbollah units out of their positions, as the supporting artillery battalion fired over 3000 shells during the battle.

Bill Roggio has posted on the Counterterrorism Blog his assessment of how the Israeli's are going to proceed after the seizure of Bint Jubayl. He senses that the Israelis may soon run out of time, and thus are going to try to carve out a small buffer zone that will be turned over to a NATO led force that will replace the UN peacekeepers in the region.

If Israel is interested in getting to the Litani river as quickly as possible, they should start moving north in force over the next 24 to 48 hours. The IDF seems to be taking the local high ground first, which allows them to dominate the villages that are often placed in the valleys. The first signs may occur around the village of Taire as the hill to the north has a commanding view over the nearby towns. The hill to the south of Braachit may also be seized in conjunction with this.

It is going to be interesting to see if the IDF attempts to raise the tempo of their operations over the next few days. If things continue in this sector at the same pace, during the next 48 to 72 hours the IDF should occupy this next line of towns.

A (theoretical) situation map

2006-07-25T00:50:00.000-04:00

This is how I view the situation right now. Hard to say what is really going on though. The casualty reports seem to be too low for any kind of hard fighting. It is also difficult to figure out the strengths on either side. For all I know the Israelis could consist of a handfull of companies facing off against several dispersed teams of Hizbollah fighters. There has been no news of any other towns involved in the fighting either. For now it seems both Hizbollah and the Israeli's are content to fight each other at arms length.

Quick update:

According to the Jerusalem Post here, the IDF now controls Bint Jbail. Lots of interesting information about what they have found as well. I'll see if I can comment on things a little more thoroughly later.

A quick update

2006-07-24T00:39:00.000-04:00

Unfortunately details are still very sparse, but the Jerusalem Post has a news update that says that:

IDF ground forces and Hizbullah guerrillas were engaged Monday morning in a heavy exchange of fire north of the village of Maroun al-Ras, a strongly-contested Hizbullah stronghold.

If you look at a map, north of Maroun al-Ras is the town of Bint Jubayl, which has been described as the nexus of Hezbollah's administration in the region. Strangely enough in the same article they write:

Despite sporadic gunbattles throughout the day in Maroun al-Ras - the scene of heavy fighting last week - the IDF on Sunday dispatched troops to take up positions on the outskirts of Bint Jubayl, a village east of Maroun al-Ras.

From the maps I've been looking at the city of Bint Jubayl is immediately to the north of Maroun al-Ras, not the east. It could be that the journalist happened to get Bint Jubayl confused with its neighbor, roughly 2 km to the east, Aitarun. It could also be that the source of the report was confused as to where they were, and actually on the ridge to the west of Bint Jubayl. Ultimately it is unknowable due to the paucity of information currently available. On a minor note I am uncertain of the proper name of this city. I've seen it spelt Bint Jbail as well as Bint Jbayl. In fact the article spells it two different ways.

I've noticed that the IDF seems to be taking its time here, it could be that they haven't had enough time to build up the forces they want in the immediate area. It could also be that they are scouting out wherever it is they wish to go next. Once they have control of Bint Jbail they will control a major crossroads that will allow them to go north, east, or west.

Quick Update: This would seem to fit right in with Red River's comments at the Belmont Club (second comment down):

This is intricate, set-piece fighting and Isreal is going to take it slow and careful using terrain, overmatch and firepower to grind Hezbollah down.

The Belmont Club: The Path of the IDF

2006-07-23T02:30:00.000-04:00

The Belmont Club: The Path of the IDF

Heh, didn't expect this result.

What I was trying to do was use the 'create a link' function to show that my blog had commented on his blog. Anyway, my comments are here.

Seizing the High Ground

2006-07-23T01:22:00.000-04:00

This started off as a post over at Wretchard's excellent blog, The Belmont Club.

If you have Google earth, take a look at these coordinates:

Yaroun: 33° 4'54.60"N 35°25'11.00"E
Maroun al-Ras: 33° 6'11.34"N 35°26'43.78"E
Hill 891: 33° 5'46.07"N 35°29'30.44"E

These three coordinates may demarcate the line of the Israeli advance into Lebanon over the last 24 hours (see links here and here (ht: Pajamas Media)). The reasons for them to do so, at least on a tactical/operational level are pretty clear. First, seize the high ground. I dug up a topographic map (via Google here) that gives the peak heights of the surrounding terrain in meters. Assuming that the map is accurate, a brief survey shows that the town of Maroun al-Ras sits on the highest terrain for kilometers around at a peak altitude of 943 meters. Hill 891 which is probably the Israeli right flank has the next highest altitude at 891 meters. Yaroun anchors the Israeli left flank, creating an arc of positions along the ridgeline. For at least several kilometers north and west of there the terrain is either valley, or with a peak altitude no greater then 825 meters. Second, according to this report (ht: Pajamas Media) the town of Bint Jabel is considered by the Israelis to be the “Hizbullah capital.” The town is sheltered in the valley north-west about 1 1/4 miles from Maroun al-Ras and now ripe for an Israeli incursion.

Quick note: I'm new to blogging, still trying to figure out this whole trackback thing. If I mess it up I apologize!

Quick note 2: mnc, in the comments section here points to a newspaper article about the Irish battallion that used to operate in this area, here (registration required).

Hezbollah's strategy

2006-07-16T13:16:00.000-04:00

It is becoming evident that Hezbollah has been preparing for a long time for this kind of conflict. It may be that they were just being opportunistic when they seized the Israeli soldiers as hostages, but I have a feeling that Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, and Iran are orchestrating a planned operation. At any rate Hezbollah, and its allies have put a lot of forethought and planning into this. Michael Totten wrote months ago that things were very tense along the border in his article "Everything Could Explode at Any Moment," and explode they have.

After reading this Jerusalem Post article this morning, I reflected that Hezbollah has adopted a basically defensive strategy of four parts:

First keep lobbing in artillery rockets whenever possible to keep the Israeli's engaged. Its not going to do much real damage, but it will show them as striking back and fighting the enemy.

Second, keep lines of communication open to the outside media. They can be powerful allies in shaping world opinion. The more pictures of dead and mutilated civilians you can show to the world, the easier its going to be for your natural allies to voice the opinion that either Israel is being "disproportionate" or engaged in the "annihilation" of an entire people. The Israelis of course realize this which has led to some drama around the Al-Manar television tower:

Earlier in the day, the IAF bombed the building in Beirut from which the Hezbollah-run television station, Al-Manar, is broadcast.
The station went off the air for a short while after the airstrike but then resumed broadcasting about six minutes later. The station is Hizbullah's main communications link, and most of the information the world has received from the group about recent fighting has been issued by Al-Manar.
It was the fourth time in recent days that the IDF has targeted the building.

I've heard that most journalists get their information from official sources, the Al-Manar feed is probably an important source for those who are currently reporting and shaping the ongoing story in Lebanon. More importantly it is also an important source of information for the local bloggers, and is probably a large factor in how they are beginning to perceive how the conflict is unfolding.

Third, Hezbollah has developed an official presence in various parts of the country. Not only do they control the border with Israel, they also have their own the fief in the Bakaa valley in the east. Official buildings and headquarters also exist in Beirut, along with hardened installations that the Israeli's have been striking with bunker-buster bombs:

A senior IAF officer revealed to the Post on Sunday afternoon that the IDF was using bunker-buster bombs to strike at senior Hizbullah officials in hiding throughout Beirut and Lebanon. According to the officer, several of the bunker hideouts were hidden under civilian parking lots.

By integrating themselves as much as possible into the rest of Lebanese society they were trying to gain a bit of a deterrence factor against the Israelis. They probably hoped that maybe they would not strike at them in Beirut, and occupy themselves with the terrain at the border. Israel has chosen not to be deterred against Hezbollah, and thus Hezbollah has had lots of opportunities to amplify any civilian casualties that will occur.

Fourth, buried in the article was the note that:

Al-Arabiya television reported that the Syrian military was mobilizing its own reserve divisions.

Now at the time its not clear if this is just saber rattling or if the operational plan calls for an overall escalation against the Israelis by an assault on the Golan Heights (admittedly unlikely) or a return of the Syrian Army to Lebanon. It could be that this entire operation is just so that Syria and Hizbollah can drag all of Lebanon back kicking and screaming into the fold.

Rocket Artillery

2006-07-16T11:28:00.000-04:00

Woke up this morning and of course the first thing I do is check the news to find out that Hezbollah got in another artillery rocket strike on Haifa, killing eight. (ht: Pajamas Media) Meanwhile it would seem that Israel and Hezbollah are playing a game of cat and mouse, Hezbollah trying to get rockets off at various Israeli targets while the Israeli airforce attempts to destroy the launchers in their positions (ht: Pajamas Media).

Feudal Lebanon

2006-07-15T18:16:00.000-04:00

I've put up some links to what I feel are the best sites on the web for tracking what is going on in Lebanon. Wretchard at the Belmont Club has written several cogent articles that have spawned a long chain of commentary. Pajamas Media also has a good selection of news and commentary, while the Truth Laid Bear is tracking a wide variety of blogs from the region and elsewhere. Open Lebanon is also a good aggregate of blogs just from Lebanon.

A reflection:

It is interesting to see how the relationships between Hezbollah, the Lebanese national government, Syria, and Iran could almost be termed feudal. You could say that Hezbollah is nominally a vassal of the Lebanese national government, but in reality is a vassal to Syria and Iran. The Lebanese government had been a vassal of Syria, but has supposedly broken the relationship. Now Hezbollah has gone and triggered a war with Israel. Israel demands that Lebanon, Hezbollah's legal liege, restrain them and restore peace. Unfortunately Lebanon doesn't have the will nor capability to force Hezbollah into submission. International diplomacy also seems to be stuck on the concept of the sovereign nation-state, the language to describe other realities long atrophied from disuse.

First Post

2006-07-15T17:44:00.000-04:00

Read blogs long enough and you itch to start your own. At least thats how I got started on this.

Don't expect this blog to be updated often.....

Topics will probably be very random.....

Now lets figure out the rest of this blogger thing.